I will base my picks using the best lines I can find in Las Vegas at the time I make them. They are available to view here and updated real-time: Vegas lines
Interesting that this game is being played at "Peyton's Place", except that his little brother is the one going for the trophy.
1. NY Giants +3 vs. New England. (Line at Hilton, Jan 23). Enjoy the game.
1. Baltimore at New England -7 (Line at Hilton, Jan 20). New England's defensive stats are skewed IMO, as the numbers don't take into account the points the other teams need to make up to catch them. Regular season turnover differentials: New England +17, Baltimore +2. Baltimore's defense and running game (ala Ray Rice) is excellent. In fact, Baltimore beat the Patriots in the Wildcard in New England in '09 with a score 33-14. Of course, there was no Welker (injured), Gronkowski, or Hernandez in that game. Actually, New England had lost its last three playoff games before beating Denver last week. New England's offense is well established, and yet 7 points seems a lot to give in a game of this magnitude, right? Surely New England is due for a let-down after scoring more than 40 points last week, right? And Joe Flacco will mimic Brady in this game after his less than stellar season, right? It's the NFL. Nothing surprises me. I don't have the script, so I am going with my gut.
Result: Baltimore 20 - New England 23 = Loss
***
No play on the late game. I'm a Niner fan.
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Divisional Playoffs
1. New Orleans -3.5 at San Francisco (Line at Hilton, Jan 13). Niner defense has played lights out this season. Could they win this, sure. A lot of hype about how badly Saints have played on the road. So? They played 8 road games and lost 3. This is the Playoffs, and they remember what happened last year with a loss in Seattle. Niners have had problems scoring in the endzone. Drew Brees (46 TD's) vs. Alex Smith (17 TD's)....
Result: New Orleans 32 - San Francisco 36 = Loss
Not touching the Denver/NE game. I don't like two TD lines in the Playoffs, even though I think the Patriots will win this.
2. Houston at Baltimore -7.5 (Line at Hilton, Jan 13). If Arian Foster can penetrate the Raven defense for yardage, this could get dicey I suppose. My concern is Flacco, as Houston's defense is pretty good. My guess is the Raven defense will take care of business at home, and they allow Ray Rice more touches.
Result: Houston 13 - Baltimore 20 = Loss
3. NY Giants +7.5 at Green Bay (Line at Hilton, Jan 13). I like the way the Giants have been playing on both sides of the ball recently. They have developed a nice momentum, while the Packers have basically been on two byes leading up to this game. Two forces will be colliding in this one...should be a great game.
Result: NY Giants 37 - Green Bay 20 = WIN
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Wildcard Weekend
1. Atlanta at NY Giants -3 (Line at Hilton, Jan 2): With a healthy defense, and two of the best pass rushers, not to mention several weapons on offense, this is my choice for Sunday's wildcard at 1:00pm ET.
Result: Atlanta 2 - NY Giants 24 = WIN
2. Cincinnati at Houston -3 (Line at Hilton,Jan 2): Houston earned the right to be in the playoffs long before Cincinnati did. They also have depth beyond the first string.
Result: Cincinnati 10 - Houston 31 = WIN
3. Detroit at New Orleans Over 59.5 (Line at Hilton, Jan 7): Remembering the post season game between Arizona and Green Bay going 96 points...this game could qualify.
Result: Detroit 28 - New Orleans 45 = WIN
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Week 17
1. Carolina +8 at New Orleans. If Payton sits Brees, which he has done the last five years in week 17 (and lost), this one stands a good chance. If he doesn't sit him...could still stand a good chance. Carolina definitely coming to play in this one. Brees mentioned they need to play to keep momentum alive....we'll see.
Result: Carolina 17 - New Orleans 45 = Loss
2. Pittsburgh -6.5 at Cleveland. Steelers are still playing for the title and a better seed, while playing at the same time as Baltimore.
Result: Pittsburgh 13 - Cleveland 9 = Loss
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Week 16
Oops, thought I had put up my pick last night for Saturday. Oh well, nobody wrote to ask for it, so let's chalk this weekend up to Merry Christmas everyone. See you next week!
Record to date: 20-12-1 (62.5%)
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Week 15
1. New Orleans at Minnesota Under 53.5 (Line at Hiton Sunday, Dec 18, 11:45 am).
Result: New Orleans 42 - Minnesota 20 = Loss
Crazy weekend. Green Bay loses to Kansas City; Indianapolis gets their first win.
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Week 14
1. Buffalo at San Diego -7 (Line at Hilton Sat, Dec 10, 11:50am). Buffalo gives up a lot of yards on the ground. Should set up Rivers pretty nicely.
Result: Buffalo 10 - San Diego 37 = WIN
2. NY Giants +4 at Dallas (Line at Hilton Fri, Dec 9, 1:50pm). Heated game, Giants need to win this. Manning seems to be coming into his own late, with plenty of weapons.
Result: NY Giants 37 - Dallas 34 = WIN
3. NY Giants at Dallas Over 48.5 (Line at Mirage Fri, Dec 9, 2:00pm). Mucho scoring by both entirely possible in this one.
Result: NY Giants 37 - Dallas 34 = WIN
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Week 13
1. NYJets at Washington +3 (Line at Hilton as of Sunday, 11:00am ET).
Result: NYJets 34 - Washington 19 = Loss
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Week 12
1. Green Bay -6 at Detroit. (Line at Stratosphere as of Wed, 11:00pm ET). There is some unfinished business at play here. Rodgers went down with a concussion the last time these two met...
Result: Green Bay 27 - Detroit 15 = WIN
2. Carolina at Indianapolis Under 47 (Line at Atlantis as of Sunday, 10:45am ET) Don't understand this total that has been rising.
Result: Carolina 27 - Indianapolis 17 = WIN
3. Chicago +3 at Oakland (Line at Atlantis as of Sunday, 10:45 am ET) Run the ball.
Result: Chicago 20 - Oakland 25 = Loss
4. Denver +6 at San Diego (Line at Stratosphere as of Sunday, 10:45am ET). Revenge game.
Result: Denver 16 - San Diego 13 = WIN
1. San Diego at Chicago - Over 45 (Line at Hilton as of Thursday, 10:00am ET). Teams that played on Thursdays at home and the next week away have shown a good record for going over the next week. This total started at 46.5 and has dropped. We'll see.
Result: San Diego 20 - Chicago 31 = WIN
1. New Orleans at Atlanta (pk) (Line at Hilton, as of Sunday, 8:30am ET). Tough game to call, but siding with the home team in this divisional matchup.
Result: New Orleans 26 - Atlanta 23 = Loss
In overtime, Atlanta appeared to pick up a first down on a pass to Mike Cox, but he was ruled just short after referee Terry McAuley looked at the replay. Then, stunningly, Smith decided to go for it on fourth down from his own 29.
Michael Turner was stuffed.
Game over. All Saints needed was a FG after that. grrrr
2. New England +2 at NY Jets (Line at Hilton, as of Sunday, 8:30am ET). Patriots have two losses since their bye, and sent Haynesworth packing...maybe that will bring them some luck.
Result: New England 37 - NY Jets 16 = WIN
1. Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3 (Line at Mirage, as of Saturday, 7:45pm ET). I am on them again this week. It's a bit difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, especially if they are such blatant rivals and the loser of the first meeting is now home. The 3 looms large, because many games between these two have been decided by that number; however, watching Joe Flacco on the other side has been painful. I hope he doesn't decide to suddenly wake up on Sunday, like he did in the second half last week. The Steelers stomped on New England last week. Could either be a let-down spot, or a confidence builder.
Result: Baltimore 23 - Pittsburgh 20 = Loss
2. Green Bay -5.5 at San Diego (Line at Hilton, as of Sunday, 8:30am ET). The Packers have a division game vs. Minnesota on deck, but off their bye should handle this team by spreading the ball; not to mention San Diego has been dismal in the redzone.
Result: Green Bay 45 - San Diego 38 = WIN
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Week 8
1. New England at Pittsburgh +2.5 (Line at Hilton, as of Saturday, 11:30pm ET). New England has a nice record vs. Pittsburgh, but I am making a contrarian play here and going against the hype.
Result: New England 17 - Pittsburgh 25 = WIN
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Week 7
1. Green Bay -9 at Minnesota (Line at Hilton, as of Wednesday, Oct. 20, 12:45am ET). Minnesota going with new QB this week. He might light a spark...but IMO, they need a bonfire to keep up with Green Bay. Green Bay has a bye next week; hopefully they don't take it easy in this game.
Result: Green Bay 33 - Minnesota 27 = Loss
2. Atlanta +3.5 at Detroit (Line at Hilton as of Fri, Oct. 21, 1:45pm ET). Michael Turner could be deciding factor in this game.
Result: Atlanta 23 - Detroit 16 = WIN
3. MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL. Baltimore at Jacksonville - Over 38.5 (Line at Hilton, as of Monday, Oct. 24, 4:45pm ET). Some say scoring will be at a premium given Baltimore's defense. Depends on the strategy for both teams if you ask me. Jacksonville's defense can hold its own at times...and many times good defenses cause points on the board.
Result: Baltimore 7 - Jacksonville 12 = Loss
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1. Houston at Baltimore -7.5 (Line at Mirage as of Friday, Oct. 14, 11:45pm ET). Should have hopped on at opening bell, but still like Baltimore to take advantage of the injuries that have befallen Houston.
Result: Houston 14 - Baltimore 29 = WIN
2. San Fran at Detroit -4 (Line at Hilton and several other places as of Friday, Oct. 14, 11:45 pm ET). I have thought about Detroit coming off an emotional win last Monday night, but I have also considered SF's huge point win over TB at home last weekend, plus the fact that SF has lost two key players as a result. Detroit fans are out of their minds this year, the place will be loud...and their defense should play a significant role vs. Alex Smith.
Result: San Fran 25 - Detroit 19 = Loss
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Week 5
1. Green Bay -6 at Atlanta (Line at Hilton as of Thursday, Oct. 6, 11:00am ET). Could be a trap line as they opened at -3.5. As long as they are healthy, I'll stick with them. Atlanta is seeking revenge big time for last year's loss is what I am hearing. Looking at it another way, you would think Green Bay wants to prove it wasn't a fluke.
Result: Green Bay 25 - Atlanta 14 = WIN
That's it for me this week. Nothing else appeals to me.
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Week 4
1. Carolina at Chicago -6.5 (Line at Hilton as of Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2:30pm ET). Carolina lost a couple of its good defensive players for the season, plus I don't think Cam Newton has faced this good of a defensive front yet.
Result: Carolina 29 - Chicago 34 = Loss
2. New Orleans -7 at Jacksonville (Line at Hilton as of Wed, Sept 28, 2:15pm ET). First of 3 game consecutive road trip schedule for Saints in this non-conference match-up, that will be followed by 2 division games. I think about these schedules, but comparing offenses in this match-up, I don't think giving up a key number 7 is too much. We'll see.
Result: New Orleans 23 - Jacksonville 10 = WIN
3. Denver at Green Bay -12.5 (Line at Hilton as of Wed, Sept 28, 2:30pm ET). Packers haven't played at home in almost a month. This place will be rocking.
Result: Denver 23 - Green Bay 49 = WIN
4. Atlanta -4.5 at Seattle (Line at Hilton as of Sat, Oct 1, 11:00am ET). As they say in horse racing, this is a drop down in class.
Result: Atlanta 30 - Seattle 28 = Loss
5. New England -5 at Oakland (Line at Hilton as of Sat, Oct 1, 11:00am ET). Embarrassing loss to Buffalo last week, whereas the Raiders are coming off an emotional win against the Jets. I see two situational plays colliding.
Result: New England 31 - Oakland 19 = WIN
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Week 3
1. Detroit/Minnesota: OVER 44.5 (Line at the Mirage as of Sat., Sept. 24, 9:15am ET) Minnesota needs to get something going here offensively; we know the Lions are capable.
Result: Detroit 26 - Minnesota 23 = WIN
2. Baltimore -4.5 at St. Louis (Line at the Mirage as of Sat., Sept. 24, 11:00pm ET). Giving them another go this week, as a bounce-back from a loss.
Result: Baltimore 37 - St. Louis 7 = WIN
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Week 2
1. Indianapolis +2.5 vs. Cleveland: Just a hunch. (Line as of Thursday at Leroy's, Sept 15, 11:00pm ET)
Result: Indianapolis 19 - Cleveland 27 = LOSS
2. Baltimore -6 at Tennessee: Titans did yield 133 yards last week on the ground, so hopefully RB Ray Rice will be a key factor today. (Line as of Sunday at Las Vegas Hilton, Sept 18, 8:30am ET)
Result: Baltimore 13 - Tennessee 26 = LOSS
3. Pittsburgh -14 vs. Seattle: Seattle was a lousy road team last season, which showed again vs. the Niners last week. Now they travel 3 time zones for an early game in the East....vs. a very embarrassed Steeler team. (Line as of Sunday at Las Vegas Hilton, Sept 18, 8:30m ET)
Result: Pittsburgh 24 - Seattle 0 = WIN
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Week 1
1. Arizona -7 vs. Carolina: At home, Kevin Kolb as QB...he showed a lot of gumption last year in Philadelphia. (Line as of Friday, Sept 9, 2:30am ET)
Result: Arizona 28 - Carolina 21 = PUSH
2. New England -7 at Miami: Tom Brady vs. Chad Henne is where I am going with this one. (Line as of Friday, Sept 9, 2:30am ET)
Result: New England 38 - Miami 24 = WIN
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